Hurricane wins speed accuracy

I find the wind speed accuracy to be incorrect when comparing data from National Hurricane Center (NHC). For example this morning I checked the wind speeds at various altitudes and it reads less than 100mph however the NHC public advisory indicates Hurricane Melissa is now a Cat 5 with 160mph sustained winds.

I have recommended this tool to countless family and friends that all live in the hurricane regions of the US and we all have been impressed with the results of Ventusky's ability to inform us with more confidence than the NHC with regards to path predictions. A more accurate wind speed (past, current or future) would improve the confidence in your weather tool for everyone who lives through the challenges of Hurricane season each year.

Best,
Steve

Stephen Robbins
Thank you very much for your feedback and for recommending Ventusky to others — we really appreciate it.

The difference you’re seeing is mainly due to how the data are measured. The extremely high wind speeds reported by the National Hurricane Center (like 160 mph for Category 5 Melissa) come from a very small area within the hurricane — often just a few kilometers wide — and are measured directly by reconnaissance aircraft.

Model data used in Ventusky represent averaged or smoothed wind speeds over a larger grid (typically several kilometers in resolution), so these narrow peaks can’t be fully captured. In other words, the models show the broader structure of the hurricane, but not the very localized maximum gusts measured by aircraft.

Still, we’re continuously working to improve the accuracy and resolution of our data sources, especially for extreme weather like hurricanes.

For context: Hurricane Melissa has a small “pinhole” eye measuring only 18.5 km in diameter, underscoring its extreme intensity compared to the average hurricane eye of 32–64 km. By comparison, the smallest recorded Atlantic hurricane eye was Hurricane Wilma, at just 3.7 km across, with peak sustained winds of 295 km/h and a record-low central pressure of 882 hPa.

Great explanation, appreciate the quick response. I used this tool to make the decision to leave town with my family during Hurricane Irma, because Ventusky predicted the path around Jamaica and Cuba before making a run up the west coast of FL expecting Cat 4 landfall. I have lived all my life in Florida and that was the one hurricane I actually left because of the potential damaging effects 30 miles inland. We had missed a bullet with Hurricane Charley which could have been the big one for Tampa Bay.

My sister lived through Andrew in 92 and I witnessed the destruction there too. Helene was the worst so far, when my childhood home on a canal in north Tampa bay flooded 18" inside after Helene, a home that was built in 1967 and never flooded...ever!

Again the importance of a tool like Ventusky is priceless, keep up the great work, THANK YOU!

Stephen Robbins
Indeed, Ventusky is a priceless tool for Hurricanes and Typhoons, including the aftermath of a Typhoon/Hurricane landfall, in tracking where the moisture threat will be for rain that may cause severe flash flooding/landslides n thus be a real time early warning system, sometimes the typhoon/hurricane is outside the cone of uncertainty n the satellite position does not match the prescribed path, who will you trust, e.g. if you were storm-chasers who might be receiving a storm surge at the end of a bay, in the recent Fung-Wong, it is touch and go to the final minutes.

For Melissa too, the real time data showed the tussle of directions, perhaps the area it went through was relatively uninhabited, I don't know the place, never been there. It is really accurate in that Morgerman the Icyclone hurricane chaser was right in the path at very great risk. Hopefully it can be that such a predicament can be properly removed in future, through understanding how to cool the heat that creates these monsters, although new problems might arrive from such an adjustment, but we always face technological change all the time, e.g. wireless internet.