Category 5 hurricane Melissa approaching Jamaica with record-breaking intensity
Hurricane Melissa is an exceptionally powerful and slow-moving tropical cyclone currently impacting the Caribbean Sea (Fig.1; see map). It has become the third Category 5 hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season and ranks among the most intense storms ever observed in the basin.
The system originated from a tropical wave that left the west coast of Africa on 16 October 2025. It gradually organised as the disturbance moved across the central Atlantic toward the Windward Islands. On 21 October, the National Hurricane Centre (NHC) designated it as Tropical Storm Melissa. Initially, moderate vertical wind shear slowed further intensification, and the storm drifted slowly across the central Caribbean, where sea-surface temperatures exceeded 30 °C (86 °F) (Fig. 2; see map).
Between 25 and 26 October, Melissa underwent a period of rapid intensification, with maximum sustained winds increasing from 115 km/h (70 mph) to 225 km/h (140 mph) in only 18 hours. Favourable atmospheric conditions allowed further strengthening, including low wind shear and high oceanic heat content. Early on 27 October, Melissa reached Category 5 intensity with peak sustained winds near 260 km/h (160 mph) and a minimum central pressure of about 917 hPa (Fig. 3, see map).
As the hurricane approaches the southern coast of Jamaica, forecasts suggest Melissa could become the strongest hurricane ever to strike the island directly. In addition to catastrophic winds, the system is expected to bring extreme rainfall, with localised totals possibly exceeding 1,000 mm (40 inches). Figure 4 shows the forecasted three-hour rainfall totals on Tuesday around 07:00 UTC (see map).
For context, Jamaica has only experienced three direct hurricane landfalls since 1950: Hurricane Charlie (1951, Category 3), Hurricane Gilbert (1988, Category 3), and Hurricane Sandy (2012, Category 1). Of these, Gilbert caused the most destruction, claiming 45 lives and devastating large parts of the island. Melissa, however, is forecast to surpass all three in strength.
By Wednesday, the hurricane will continue northwestward, bringing life-threatening conditions to Cuba, where emergency evacuations are already underway.
