Hurricane Gabrielle will hit the Azores, then weaken and move towards Portugal
Hurricane Gabrielle is an active, intense tropical cyclone. In this year’s hurricane season—which has been relatively quiet in terms of the number of named storms—Gabrielle is the seventh named storm and the second major hurricane (Category 3 or higher), following Hurricane Erin. Gabrielle reached hurricane status on September 19 and intensified over the following days to a Category 4 hurricane, with sustained winds of up to 220 km/h. After reaching this peak, it gradually weakened, and by September 23 it had downgraded to a Category 3 hurricane.
As of September 25, the hurricane is located approximately 700 km west of the Azores (Fig. 1, see map). According to current forecasts, Gabrielle is expected to impact the islands during the night from Thursday to Friday, still as a Category 1 hurricane.
According to the ECMWF model (Fig. 2, see map), Gabrielle is forecast to bring wind gusts of up to 150 km/h to the Azores. The map clearly shows that the hurricane’s center (or eye) is characterized by lower wind speeds and will pass directly over the islands. However, the eyewall surrounding the center will produce the most severe conditions, with the strongest gusts and heavy torrential rainfall.
The Azores are sometimes affected by tropical and post-tropical cyclones, particularly in September, often as remnants of earlier hurricanes. Nevertheless, direct hurricane impacts are rather rare here. The last hurricane to affect the Azores was Lorenzo in 2019, which mainly impacted the islands of Flores and Corvo, producing wind gusts of up to 160 km/h.
In addition to strong winds and heavy rainfall, Hurricane Gabrielle is expected to generate very high waves (Fig. 3, see map). Some models suggest wave heights could reach up to 15 meters. Afterwards, Gabrielle will move over much cooler waters and continue to weaken. Over the weekend, it is expected to transition into an extratropical low and reach the western coast of Portugal, but in a much weaker form.
