This year’s Atlantic hurricane season has yet to produce a single hurricane
By this point, the current Atlantic hurricane season would normally be expected to be entering its most active phase. So far, however, the opposite has been true. By mid-August, only three named tropical storms had formed, and none of them had strengthened into a hurricane. Activity is therefore well below the long-term average, and current forecasts suggest that 2026 could rank among the least active Atlantic hurricane seasons of recent years.
The main climate driver of this year's season is El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). During El Niño events, sea-surface temperatures increase across the tropical Pacific, triggering changes in atmospheric circulation. Warm water shifts eastward from the region around Australia and Indonesia toward the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. At the same time, the distribution of convection and precipitation changes and the Walker circulation weakens. The Walker circulation is an atmospheric circulation pattern along the equator in which air rises over the warm western Pacific, flows eastward in the upper troposphere, and then sinks over the cooler eastern Pacific. These changes can influence atmospheric circulation well beyond the Pacific, including over the Atlantic.
Stronger vertical wind shear
One of the main consequences of these changes is an increase in vertical wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. El Niño alters the location and intensity of convection over the Pacific, which in turn affects the subtropical jet stream over North America and the Atlantic (Fig. 1). Stronger westerly winds in the upper troposphere increase the difference between the wind near the surface and the wind at higher levels. This difference is known as vertical wind shear.
Strong vertical wind shear is unfavorable for the development of a tropical cyclone because it can displace the upper-level convection from the low-level circulation. As a result, the developing system becomes tilted with height, its internal circulation is disrupted, and heat and moisture are less effectively concentrated around the center. Strong shear can therefore slow or prevent tropical cyclone development and can significantly weaken an already-developed hurricane.
Figure 2 illustrates this effect using average conditions over the 31-day period ending on August 18. The map shows the anomaly in vertical wind shear between the 850 and 200 hPa levels, corresponding approximately to altitudes of 1.5 and 12 km, respectively. Red shades indicate areas of above-average wind shear, with pronounced positive anomalies evident over the Caribbean and parts of the tropical Atlantic. Blue areas, by contrast, indicate weaker-than-normal shear. The distribution of these anomalies shows that, across parts of the tropical Atlantic, the difference between the flow at the lower 850 hPa level and that at the upper 200 hPa level was significantly greater than normal. Conditions in this region were therefore less favorable for tropical cyclone development during the first half of August. Vertical wind shear can also be monitored in Ventusky (see map ).
Fewer tropical disturbances emerging from Africa
Another unfavorable factor is found over western Africa, from where many of the tropical disturbances that can later develop into Atlantic tropical cyclones originate. The West African monsoon and its associated convection play an important role in this process. This year's monsoon rainfall over western Africa has been below average, which is associated with weaker activity of African easterly waves (AEWs). These disturbances propagate westward from inland areas of western Africa toward the Atlantic. African easterly waves develop within the African easterly jet and represent an important source of disturbances that can eventually develop into tropical cyclones over the Atlantic (Fig. 3). We described this process in greater detail in this article. When these waves are weaker or less organized, they are less likely to develop a closed circulation after reaching the Atlantic and subsequently intensify.
Saharan dry air and dust
Another limiting factor for tropical cyclone development is the advection of dry air from the Sahara, known as the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). This air mass regularly moves from northern Africa across the tropical Atlantic. It is characterized by very low humidity and elevated concentrations of mineral dust. When the Saharan Air Layer penetrates a tropical disturbance, it reduces the moisture available for deep convection and suppresses the development of strong thunderstorm activity. The dry air can also contribute to increased atmospheric stability. A tropical disturbance therefore has to overcome another obstacle before it can become more organized over the warm Atlantic. During the first part of this year's hurricane season, however, Saharan dust and dry-air outbreaks were slightly below average. Several more significant episodes did occur in August, as illustrated, for example, in Fig. 4 (see map ).
The observed Atlantic activity is consistent with these unfavorable atmospheric conditions. By mid-August, only three named storms had formed: Arthur, Bertha and Cristobal (Fig. 5). All three remained tropical storms and none reached hurricane strength. What makes the situation particularly notable is that this has occurred despite sea-surface temperatures across the Atlantic remaining relatively warm, which would otherwise provide tropical cyclones with a substantial source of energy. The 2026 season therefore demonstrates that warm ocean temperatures alone are not sufficient for hurricane formation and intensification. When atmospheric conditions are unfavorable at the same time, particularly when vertical wind shear is strong, dry air is present, and fewer well-organized tropical disturbances are emerging from Africa, these factors can substantially limit both tropical cyclone formation and intensification.
A striking contrast with the 2025 season
Finally, it is worth recalling last year's Atlantic hurricane season, which was exceptionally active and provides a striking contrast with the current season. In 2025, the Atlantic produced 13 named storms, five of which reached hurricane strength, while four became major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). The intensity of the strongest storms was particularly notable. Hurricane Erin rapidly intensified to Category 5 strength, increasing its maximum sustained winds by more than 80 km/h within 24 hours — among the most rapid intensification events observed in the Atlantic. Hurricane Humberto also reached Category 5 intensity, while Hurricane Melissa became the third Category 5 hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season. Hurricane Melissa was also notable for its impact on Jamaica, where it made landfall as one of the strongest hurricanes ever to affect the island and the wider Atlantic basin region.
The influence of El Niño is not limited to the Atlantic. In the western North Pacific, El Niño generally shifts the main area of tropical cyclone formation farther east. This can change both the distribution and tracks of typhoons across the region, with tropical cyclones more likely to develop farther from the Philippines and potentially follow different tracks toward Japan or the open Pacific. In contrast to the Atlantic, tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific is expected to be above average this season, with El Niño favoring conditions for an increased number of typhoons in the region. The effects are complex, however, and individual seasons can vary considerably. Typhoon and hurricane activity can be followed in the Ventusky app. Users can monitor tropical cyclones around the world, including their current intensity, past and forecast tracks, and the forecast cone showing uncertainty in the predicted path. The tracker is integrated directly into Ventusky's weather maps, allowing users to view cyclone tracks together with forecasts of wind, wind gusts, pressure, precipitation and other meteorological parameters.
